Industry News
Fiber to Hit 33% of NA Broadband Market by 2030?
Views : 459
Author : JIUZHOU
Update time : 2025-04-11 13:37:56
Research Group predicts that fiber will account for 33% of the North American broadband market by 2030. This will mean that the number of fiber users in North America will maintain a steady annual growth. Operator inventory levels are stabilizing and industry procurement patterns are returning to normal.
The vice president of broadband access and home networks at the research group recently said:
"Fiber is gradually eroding the market share of cable TV."
The agency predicts that fiber will account for 33% of the North American market share by 2030. On the other hand, cable TV's share will shrink from the current 62% to 53%.
The vice president of the research group also said:
"Some forecasters show that cable TV's share will be slightly higher than our data."
"But we expect fiber coverage to expand faster, including active deployment from MSOs."
"This will drive operators in a highly competitive market."
Fiber user conversion rate is outstanding
The vice president of the research group pointed out:
Although the growth rate of fiber coverage has slowed down from the peak in 2022. But the annual growth rate and new home coverage remain stable. This trend is expected to continue until 2030.
The research VP highlighted private operators' high conversion rates in cable TV-dominated markets as key growth drivers. Fiber user conversion rates exceed 45% in some markets, driving ARPU growth via fiber deployment, notably among major operators.
The vice president of the research group said:
"Usually, a 30% conversion rate is considered a successful deployment."
"But after the actual deployment of fiber, it often quickly breaks through the 45% mark."
"As data usage grows, the cost savings and other advantages that fiber brings to operators are becoming increasingly prominent."
"All operators - whether cable, fiber ISP or fixed wireless - are facing a slowdown in downstream traffic growth."
"But upstream traffic remains high, which obviously gives symmetrical fiber an advantage."
Cable TV operators face transformation pressure
The vice president of the research group said that cable TV operators are facing a dual challenge:
"They are hindered in adding new users, while making progress in the wireless user field through MVNO."
"Therefore, service convergence has become a key strategy, and they are converting broadband users to mobile service users."
Equipment Inventory Outlook for 2025
Operator inventory levels have now stabilized, and industry procurement patterns have returned to normal.
The vice president of the research group explained that
"Equipment procurement in 2024 is extremely challenging."
"Bulk 2022-2023 procurement caused inventory overhang, positioning 2024 as the peak digestion year for excess stock."
"The forecast for PON equipment revenue growth in 2025 was cut from 8.5% in July 2024 to 1.4% in January 2025."
"Even strong growth in the second half can’t offset the weakness in the first half. "
"The DOCSIS equipment growth forecast was slightly lowered from 3.5% to 1.6%, while fixed wireless stayed steady at around 7.8%. "
"North American and European operators are reassessing user needs. "
"Fixed wireless has occupied the 'best value for money broadband' market segment, and this position will not change in the short term. "
The research group's VP believes fixed wireless will mainly affect the low-end cable TV market. User share is expected to peak at about 13% before slowly declining. Growth will continue through 2026.
Right now, the growth rate of residential users for major operators has slowed. However, the demand from business users is still stable.
The vice president of broadband access and home networks at the research group recently said:
"Fiber is gradually eroding the market share of cable TV."
The agency predicts that fiber will account for 33% of the North American market share by 2030. On the other hand, cable TV's share will shrink from the current 62% to 53%.
The vice president of the research group also said:
"Some forecasters show that cable TV's share will be slightly higher than our data."
"But we expect fiber coverage to expand faster, including active deployment from MSOs."
"This will drive operators in a highly competitive market."
Fiber user conversion rate is outstanding
The vice president of the research group pointed out:
Although the growth rate of fiber coverage has slowed down from the peak in 2022. But the annual growth rate and new home coverage remain stable. This trend is expected to continue until 2030.
The research VP highlighted private operators' high conversion rates in cable TV-dominated markets as key growth drivers. Fiber user conversion rates exceed 45% in some markets, driving ARPU growth via fiber deployment, notably among major operators.
The vice president of the research group said:
"Usually, a 30% conversion rate is considered a successful deployment."
"But after the actual deployment of fiber, it often quickly breaks through the 45% mark."
"As data usage grows, the cost savings and other advantages that fiber brings to operators are becoming increasingly prominent."
"All operators - whether cable, fiber ISP or fixed wireless - are facing a slowdown in downstream traffic growth."
"But upstream traffic remains high, which obviously gives symmetrical fiber an advantage."
Cable TV operators face transformation pressure
The vice president of the research group said that cable TV operators are facing a dual challenge:
"They are hindered in adding new users, while making progress in the wireless user field through MVNO."
"Therefore, service convergence has become a key strategy, and they are converting broadband users to mobile service users."
Equipment Inventory Outlook for 2025
Operator inventory levels have now stabilized, and industry procurement patterns have returned to normal.
The vice president of the research group explained that
"Equipment procurement in 2024 is extremely challenging."
"Bulk 2022-2023 procurement caused inventory overhang, positioning 2024 as the peak digestion year for excess stock."
"The forecast for PON equipment revenue growth in 2025 was cut from 8.5% in July 2024 to 1.4% in January 2025."
"Even strong growth in the second half can’t offset the weakness in the first half. "
"The DOCSIS equipment growth forecast was slightly lowered from 3.5% to 1.6%, while fixed wireless stayed steady at around 7.8%. "
"North American and European operators are reassessing user needs. "
"Fixed wireless has occupied the 'best value for money broadband' market segment, and this position will not change in the short term. "
The research group's VP believes fixed wireless will mainly affect the low-end cable TV market. User share is expected to peak at about 13% before slowly declining. Growth will continue through 2026.
Right now, the growth rate of residential users for major operators has slowed. However, the demand from business users is still stable.
Related News
Read More >>
Optical Connectivity: The Engine of AI Scaling
May .08.2026
With the rapid growth of generative AI and large language models, data centers are quickly becoming intelligent computing centers. The growing demand for computing power from AI models is not just about performance.
5G Core & MEC: AI-Driven Growth Through 2030
Apr .17.2026
Global communications infrastructure is currently witnessing a long-awaited "second wave of explosive growth."
6G Outlook: The Future of Next-Gen Wireless Communication
Apr .03.2026
The transition from 5G to 6G is more than just faster internet speeds. 6G will bring new changes to network design, operation, and business models. Wireless communication will become smarter, more efficient, and more energy-efficient.
Ready or Not, Next-Gen Communication Is Here
Mar .20.2026
Standardization efforts for the next generation of mobile communication technologies commenced in 2025. They project commercial deployment to take place around 2030.